Yes, it is indeed the last day of regular-season baseball games. Sunday’s games did not answer the National League wild-card playoff as expected; hence, the New York Mets headed over to board a flight to Atlanta for a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves on Monday (1 p.m. ET on ESPN2). The Arizona Diamondbacks will be watching. These teams must sweep so that they get a chance to go to the playoffs.
Let’s move to the analysis of the doubleheader, which we have labeled the most disputed ones:
Mets, Atlanta Braves
These are the make-up games that were played as a result of the two rainouts that were attributed to Hurricane Helene during last week’s Mets’-Braves CL. If these games were not played, the current setup has the Atlanta Braves, Mets, and Diamondbacks jockeying for the eliminated two wild-card positions, thus making it necessary for the two games to be played:
- Diamondbacks: 89-73
- Mets: 88-72
- Braves: 88-72
OK, why are we here in the first place?
The essential fact is you need to pay attention. The Mets and the Atlanta Braves were able to win their head-to-head encounters against the Diamondbacks in the regular season, which gives them a tiebreaker advantage should the three teams finish with the same number of wins. That is why the Mets and Atlanta Braves need to be swept to make in; if the Mets and Atlanta Braves beat each other in a doubleheader and all three teams finish 89-73, the Diamondbacks stay home.
One more thing to know: The Braves are leading the head-to-head against the Mets 6-5 this season; thus, even if they returned the favor, they still would not lose their top seeding.
What are the scenarios for each team to clinch a playoff spot?
Now, let’s go through them one by one.
- The Mets win the first game, while the Braves concede the second. The Braves, the No. 5 seed, face the No. 4 San Diego Padres in a best-of-three wild-card series. The Mets, the No. 6 seed, play the No. 3 seeded Milwaukee Brewers. The Mets would have flown from Milwaukee on Sunday, to Atlanta on Monday, and back to Milwaukee on Tuesday.
- Regardless of the outcome, if the Braves claim victory in the first match and the Mets in the second, then the same results will be achieved. The Braves are seeded number 5, and the Mets are seeded number 6.
- The Mets complete the double and record wins in both matches played. The New Yorkers are 5th in seeding and hence play the Wild Card leader taking the San Diego Padres. Arizona bye is seeded sixth and faces the Milwaukee Brewers in a repeat of last year’s wild-card series. The Mets are on a road trip, from Milwaukee to Atlanta to San Diego. They won’t complain.
- Winning both matches is a means of the Braves’ success. In this scenario, Atlanta is the number 5 seed and takes on the Padres; the Diamondbacks take the number 6 seed and will be up against the Brewers.
It is important to note that the winner of the first game of the doubleheader will earn a playoff berth. That would provide less incentive—for rather, no reason at all—for that team to go through its better relief arms in the second game. Not with the first wild card game on offer the next Tuesday.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Well, first thing first, keep in mind that a change of scheduled starter could be expected for the winning team of the first game.
Tylor Megill, a right-handed pitcher, is expected to start in today’s first game for the Mets. The most recent game Megill was involved in was Sept. 22 against the Phillies, where he threw four innings while conceding one earned run, although he had thrown over 93 pitches. He has allowed just two runs in three of his past three outings. The second game will be pitched by the right-handed pitcher, Luis Severino. His first start of the year was the opening match of the Atlanta series last Tuesday, and he got a loss encompassing seven hits and four runs in four innings. He has worn over the last four games and sports a 3.17 ERA.
Mets, Atlanta Braves
The Mets did use three of their top three starters, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and David Peterson, during the weekend against the Brewers, but all three are lefties. Those two righties might be suited better against the righty-laden Braves team with a hot 778 OPS against lefties and a rather cold 706 against righties.
It is important to point out here that if the team goes on to use both scheduled starters and the Mets go on to win—if the first game is a loss but the second game is a win—well, they would be compelled to have the third initially planned pitcher, Manaea, go back to starting for the wild-card series in three days.
The Braves’ Game 1 starting pitcher for the series will be rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been confirmed by the team. Last week, he pitched against Severino and pitched a complete seven innings while giving up three hits along with one run. He pitched against the Mets one other time, back in July, and had the most productive game of his career, striking out eleven batters in seven innings without costing any runs.
Chris Sale is, for the time being, in charge of Atlanta’s second-game starter.
Wait, yeah, what’s going on with Sale?
That’s a valid question. Sale, the NL leader in wins, earned run average, as well as strikeouts, was last on the mound on September 19, when he pitched five innings against the Cincinnati Reds. He was given a chance to pitch in one of the rainout games, but as it was reported by the Braves before the weekend, they would now keep Sale for an ‘emergency’ situation, which is a must-win game. That will come into play now only if they lose the first game.
It’s undeniably an interesting strategic decision—had they won Sunday with Sale pitching, they would have made a post-season qualification. Nonetheless, they can employ him in the second game if necessary, but if they win the first game, they will have Sale ready to begin the first game of the Wild Card series. Surely, there is also this question—is he fit at the moment?
Atlanta Braves
Against the Reds, his four-seam fastball was clocked at an average of 92.7 mph, which was his lowest this season when it comes to average velocity. He has also gone down from 95.9 mph from the last start of the previous match and averages 94.8 mph in all seasons. Perhaps it was just some fatigue induced by some games played at the end of the season. Well, to be accurate, only four days of rest were given to him before the start, and therefore he pitched last against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the second game with the highest average speed he had done. But a 2-mile-per-hour reduction is pretty deep, hence it is something that can’t pass unnoticed.
Maybe they are just hiding everything that is here. Maybe the Atlanta Braves simply did not want to use Sale, which was understandable because they were saving him for the beginning of the playoffs. Yes, we will see that if the Braves lose that first.
What about the bullpens?
On Sunday, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza sent Edwin Diaz to wrap up the 5-0 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers. Understandably, you don’t want to make light of the situation. But it was a five-run cushion, and Diaz was still made to pitch 26 tosses. This is now a scenario where the Mets want him in six games over five days, including Sunday’s finale, Monday’s doubleheader, and the wild card series.
Things are fairly better with the Braves since none of their top relievers—closer Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, or Pierce Johnson—featured in Sunday’s 4-2 batting defeat against Kansas City. They also have one of the best and deepest bullpens in baseball, and therefore they are well-positioned to cope with the annoyances of a doubleheader.
